The national average for regular gasoline has dropped 44 cents in three weeks, with Trump's Iran deal announcement draining risk from crude markets and delivering the biggest run of pump relief since early 2025.
AAA confirmed Thursday that the national average hit $4.12 per gallon as of June 11, down from $4.56 on May 21 and falling for the third consecutive week. Prices remain at four-year highs, but the pace of the decline is the steepest sustained drop in more than a year, and it tracks almost exactly with how oil traders have been repricing Washington's diplomatic push with Tehran.
President Trump told reporters on June 11 that the United States had "made a great settlement of the war with Iran," pending final documents to be signed in Europe, and cancelled airstrikes he had scheduled for that night, according to CNBC. U.S. crude futures fell 3.9 percent on the news to $86.51 a barrel, with Brent losing 4.2 percent to $89.15. That came on the heels of a separate drop of more than 5 percent in late May, after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would give Iran talks "every chance to succeed." Oil had surged past $100 a barrel when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly 20 percent of the world's seaborne oil. It has not been back above that threshold since markets began pricing in a deal.
ABC News reported Wednesday that gas prices have been declining even as the underlying conflict with Iran remains unresolved, a trend analysts attribute to oil markets pricing expected future supply rather than current conditions. The White House has pointed to the falling prices as validation for Trump's diplomatic approach over continued military escalation.
The national average conceals a split that runs directly along state policy lines. As of June 11, Indiana drivers were paying $3.39 a gallon, Texans $3.58, and Oklahomans $3.62, according to AAA state data. Californians were paying $5.81. Washington state sat at $5.57. The spread between cheapest and most expensive states exceeds two dollars a gallon, and it is not explained by crude prices, which are identical for every refiner in the country.
Gulf and South-Central states benefit from proximity to domestic refining capacity, lower state fuel taxes, and regulatory environments that allow conventional fuel blends. California mandates a reformulated blend, carries some of the nation's highest fuel taxes, and has restricted its refining base through environmental regulation. For a driver filling a 15-gallon tank, the difference between pumping in Fort Wayne and pumping in Fresno runs roughly $36 each fill-up. Washington's price reflects a similar dynamic, shaped by the state's carbon pricing program and a tight local supply chain with little slack when crude spikes.
The Hormuz Wildcard
AAA flagged the Strait of Hormuz as the primary risk to the current trend in its Thursday report, noting that summer driving season forecasts are harder to make than usual given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. A deal with Iran has been announced but not yet signed. One energy analyst quoted by ABC News was direct: "The market is pricing in a deal that hasn't been signed yet."
With U.S. crude at $86 a barrel and the Iran deal moving toward a signing ceremony in Europe, a fourth straight week of declines is within reach if the diplomatic calendar holds. Whether the national average drops back below $4 before Fourth of July travel peaks is the number drivers will be watching when AAA's next weekly report lands in mid-June.
Also read: May inflation surges to 4.2%, the highest in three years on Iran energy shock • Supreme Court vacates ruling backing Biden gas furnace efficiency rules • Trump commits $700 million to coal as new leasing law locks in energy gains
